The Season of Stocks

The historical record for monthly price volatility since 1970 indicates that there is more whipsaw action ahead for the rest of the year. The 3 leading months for volatility are September, October, and November.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Rate Cut: Two and Done?

The Federal Reserve gave financial markets what was expected by lowering the target rate for the Fed Funds by 25 basis points. The Fed called the rate cut a mid-cycle adjustment and not the beginning of a new easing cycle. The markets read this as two cuts and done or maybe even one and done.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Signs of a Stimulus

It has been an extremely bullish year in many financial categories. Today’s rising prices on government bonds may be saying something about the outlook for future nominal growth. Equity-related assets may be relying on policy to save their valuations. Precious metals could see currency devaluation ahead. The one thing they all appear to be counting on is more monetary stimulus.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Asset Markets on Pace

The S&P 500 has notably been lifted by stocks listed in Technology and Communication Services sectors. Both of these sectors combined account for over 30% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization and are large constituents in the NASDAQ 100.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Tape Watching

Most of the major equity markets ended the first calendar quarter of the year with double digit percentage gains. Much of last year’s losses have been put in the past. What’s more, popularly followed indexes are closing in on last year’s all-time highs. Those that abandoned stocks at the end of 2018 have surely missed out on a fast, yet sizeable market rebound.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
An Eye on Valuation

The analysts on Wall Street set target prices for the companies that they cover. A bottom up approach that sums those target prices indicates that the index level could reach $3,062, which is a 10% premium above today’s level!

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Tides Can Change

Stock markets are powerful voting machines and quickly update as new information is made available. For investors, a prudent course of action is to remain optimistic.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Zigs and Zags

The exasperation in international stock markets are in lockstep with the US stock market’s pursuit to find a new bottom. As a whole, broader international stock markets are nearing correction levels this year.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Pushing Through

The S&P 500 nearly lost 10% between September 20th and October 29th. At its worst moment, year-to-date gains flipped from being positive to being negative.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Real Growth

Now, the US economy is being described as having the best of many worlds. Real growth has gained altitude while inflationary trends are fairly stable.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
The Italian Job

Italian bond yields rose swiftly to multi-year new highs when the Italian president refused to swear in a trained economist and Eurosceptic as Italy’s next finance minister.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Taking the Pulse

In a deliberate attempt to get ahead of the inflationary curve, the US central bank and fixed-income market participants are causing US interest rates to rise.

Read More
Advisory Alpha
Trade Games

The growing trade deficit of the US has come under increased scrutiny as of late. Notably, the trade deficit now runs around $653 billion annually and continues to grow.

Read More
Advisory Alpha